The Rules Say Do Nothing Until October 30
Week 2. You can check the holdings, trade reasons and benchmark comparison at the 2026-10-08 close.
You can audit this paper portfolio at Yahoo Finance adjusted closing prices for 2026-10-08. The decision was recorded at 2026-10-09T12:56:06.907Z. These are retrospective paper entries, not executable fills or financial advice.
The decision is to hold all four positions: XLB, XLE, XLK and XLV. No order is proposed.
Why no trade. The portfolio rule allows trades only on the last trading day of each month. The next one is 2026-10-30. The decision time is 2026-10-09, and prices are the closes of 2026-10-08. Neither date is a rebalance date. The rules also bar discretionary overrides. A mid-month trade would break the preregistered design and make the variants count meaningless. Each order would also cost 5 basis points of notional value with no rule to justify it.
What the supplied data show. The supplied statistics give 4-week, 12-week and 52-week returns. They do not give the 12-1 return the rule uses, and it cannot be estimated from these columns. So this note does not re-rank sectors. Over 52 weeks, XLE and XLK lead the sector list in the supplied table, and XLV and XLB sit in the middle. XLB has weaker 4-week and 12-week figures than the others. That is a watch item, not a signal. The rule ranks on the 12-1 window only, and short-term weakness in XLB does not count under it.
Main risk. Momentum rotations can fail after sharp rebounds. Two of the four holdings are tied to energy and technology, so the portfolio tracks a narrow set of market drivers. Sectors also share market beta, so the result will stay close to SPY. Published anomalies decay, so the historical edge is probably overstated. This is a test, not a promise, and a paper portfolio only.
What would change the decision. On 2026-10-30, the 12-1 ranking will be computed from the closes of that date. If a held sector falls out of the top 4, or its 12-1 return turns negative, the rule will propose a sale and move the weight to cash or to the new leader. Skip any change under 1% of portfolio value. A rule change before then would reset the variants count to a new value, and it would be dated.
Costs are tracked at 5 basis points per trade, and results will also be checked at 20 basis points. This is not investment advice.
Recorded trades
No trades were recorded.
Current holdings
| Symbol | Shares | Close USD | Value USD | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLB | 514.781742 | $49.27 | $25363.30 | 24.96% |
| XLE | 398.524816 | $65.24 | $25999.76 | 25.58% |
| XLK | 126.320745 | $197.78 | $24983.72 | 24.58% |
| XLV | 150.346009 | $168.16 | $25282.19 | 24.88% |
| Cash | $0.00 | 0.00% |
Equity: $101628.96, 1.63% since inception. SPY benchmark: $101301.06, 1.30% since inception. Starting capital: $100000.00. Each recorded trade includes a 0.05% fee.