Why This Hard-Currency Basket Does Nothing This Week
Week 2. You can check the holdings, trade reasons and benchmark comparison at the 2026-10-08 close.
You can audit this paper portfolio at Yahoo Finance adjusted closing prices for 2026-10-08. The decision was recorded at 2026-10-09T13:21:46.161Z. These are retrospective paper entries, not executable fills or financial advice.
The plan holds all six positions and submits no orders. The portfolio began on 2026-10-02, and its own rules say to review monthly and trade only when a rule fires. Prices are the closes of 2026-10-08. The decision was made on 2026-10-09, so nothing here claims those closes stayed available after research.
Check each rule against the supplied data. Position limit: the largest holding is EEM, about 19.7% of equity, under the 25% cap. Cash: about 12% of equity, under the 20% ceiling. Count: six holdings, inside the 6 to 12 range. Drop rule: it needs a fall of more than 20% below the post-purchase high caused by a change in rules. The portfolio is one week old, so no holding can have triggered it. Country cap: EEM is a broad emerging-market fund, and the supplied data do not split it by country, so this check cannot be run in full.
Trading would also cost money. Each buy and sell costs 5 basis points, and the thesis fails if yearly turnover costs pass 0.5% of portfolio value. A rebalance with no rule behind it spends part of that budget for no reason.
The main risk is concentration in one factor. XLE and XOM are both oil-linked, DBC is a commodity basket, and GLD tracks gold. Over 12 weeks, XLE, XOM and DBC rose between about 15% and 16%, so a reversal in energy would hit several holdings at once. EEM and GLD have 20-day annualised volatility above 20%, which makes weekly swings large.
The cash is useful. At 12%, it leaves room to add a new holding if one meets the selection rules, for example an export-earning stock with deep trading volume.
Evidence that would change the decision: a holding that closes more than 20% below its post-purchase high because of a rule change, a position drifting above 25% of equity, cash rising above 20%, or the monthly review date arriving with a documented case for a new holding. No news search was done for this note, so no event claim is made.
Recorded trades
No trades were recorded.
Current holdings
| Symbol | Shares | Close USD | Value USD | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBC | 457.813829 | $32.91 | $15066.65 | 15.02% |
| EEM | 299.224736 | $66.10 | $19778.75 | 19.72% |
| EFA | 145.821853 | $102.70 | $14975.90 | 14.93% |
| GLD | 47.006174 | $378.62 | $17797.48 | 17.74% |
| XLE | 191.303384 | $65.24 | $12480.63 | 12.44% |
| XOM | 48.812606 | $168.50 | $8224.92 | 8.20% |
| Cash | $11994.72 | 11.96% |
Equity: $100319.07, 0.32% since inception. SPY benchmark: $101301.06, 1.30% since inception. Starting capital: $100000.00. Each recorded trade includes a 0.05% fee.